Lu in" Scientific American Reports "[Volume 18, Number 1, 2008] special issue devoted to robotics
This prospective Ray Kursweil in his article "The Law of Accelerating Returns" (also http://www.kurzweilai.net/) dedicated to the growth rate of computing power.
Based on analysis of past growth, Ray Kurzweil is an extrapolation for the future, and expected to continue exponentially.
In the year 2000 to 1000 dollars, you could buy a computer that had the computing power of an insect. In 2010, the 1000 dollars will buy computing power equivalent to that of a mice. For the same amount in 2020, computing power will be that of a human brain, and in 2050 the 10 billion brain, the population of Earth. Note: This is the equivalent of raw computing power, not an intelligence similar.
The lesson to be learned is this: whatever the limitations in the design of new technologies, it is probably not the computing power that will be a constraint.
Kurzweil also emphasizes the fact that we probably will not buy this computing power in a small box. Before that date, the calculation, the computers themselves will be become invisible.
